Trump is trapped by his own strategy as he grapples for an exit in Iran

As Anja Manuel, executive director of the Aspen Security Forum, said to CNN’s Jake Tapper on Tuesday, “This conflict is not over.”

Manuel, a State Department official in the George W. Bush administration, added: “You can change the name of the operation, you can declare the ceasefire on or off, but what remains the case is the Straits of Hormuz is closed. We are blocking Iranian tankers, oil is sky-high, American companies are suffering and this conflict is nowhere near resolved.”

How the US negotiating position has eroded
Weaknesses in the US negotiating position, meanwhile, were laid bare, perhaps inadvertently, by Rubio in the White House Briefing Room on Tuesday, even as he amplified Trump’s line that the US “holds all the cards” and insisted the US naval blockade would eventually bring Iran to its knees.

The secretary of state said the US “preference” was for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened: “Anyone can use it. No mines in the water. Nobody paying tolls. That’s what we have to get back to, and that’s the goal here.”

But the strait was open before the war started, and Iran has now discovered that it can in fact be used as a major tool of deterrence. That the vital waterway is now at the center of negotiations between the US and Iran underscores how the strategic balance of the war has tilted in Tehran’s direction.