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It is extraordinary that nearly 70 days into the war, the president has reverted to comparing it to the hourslong lightning raid that seized Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
Flexibility and improvisation can be strengths in a president. But Trump’s remarks, verging on denial and obfuscation, did not sound like those of a leader who knows how to get out of this war.
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, left, walk at the conclusion of a Mother’s Day event for members of the military at the White House on May 6.
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, left, walk at the conclusion of a Mother’s Day event for members of the military at the White House on May 6. Jacquelyn Martin/AP
How a military operation failed to yield a strategic success
Even before it ends, this war is destined to be another lesson in how smaller, outgunned countries can defy superpowers with asymmetric warfare.
It is likely that administration claims to have destroyed Iran’s naval and air forces and to have inflicted severe losses on its military industrial establishment are backed up by evidence. Trump’s unwillingness to deploy tens of thousands of ground troops — a wise act of self-restraint given America’s recent history — meant that an unequivocal military victory was always out of reach.
But the limitations on US operations, combined with Iran’s discovery of the power of its seizure of the strait — which has inflicted severe pain on global economies, and consequent political pressure on Trump — have muddied the battlefield.
“The whole evolution of the conflict so far underscores the enormous gap between America’s operational capability capacity, which is substantial, and the difficulty in bringing a kind of strategic result on terms most people would judge as a success,” said Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
That disconnect explains Trump’s inability to enforce a swift and decisive US strategic victory on terms mentioned by officials at the outset of the war to match the operational one achieved by the military.
USS Abraham Lincoln conducts US blockade operations in the Arabian Sea, on April 16.
USS Abraham Lincoln conducts US blockade operations in the Arabian Sea, on April 16. US Navy/US Central Command Public Affairs
US Vice President JD Vance meets with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, on April 11, for talks about Iran.
US Vice President JD Vance meets with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, on April 11, for talks about Iran. Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AP
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine presents an Operation Epic Fury ceasefire timeline during a press briefing at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, on May 5.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine presents an Operation Epic Fury ceasefire timeline during a press briefing at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, on May 5. Benjamin D Applebaum/Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
There has been no uprising by Iranians against their tyrannical rulers. Iran has not yet verifiably renounced its aspirations to have a nuclear program or agreed to hand over its stocks of highly enriched uranium. There are no guarantees that the IRGC will not try to rebuild its proxy networks in Lebanon or Gaza.