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But Trump has claimed multiple times in recent weeks that a “deal” was about to come together and that Tehran had agreed to all his demands — only for the reality of an unyielding US foe to reassert itself.
The new US operation that lasted only hours
From Washington, this war has been plagued by strategic confusion, sudden shifts and a fogginess about how it ends. The trend is getting worse.
In one example, Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned almost in passing Tuesday that the war — “Operation Epic Fury” — was over. He then spent nearly an hour pushing another operation conjured up hours before by Trump in an attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But within a few hours, “Project Freedom” was paused after shepherding only a few vessels to safety. Trump said he was trying to boost peace talks. But the rapid adoption and abandonment of the latest US approach hardly sent a message of US resolve.
The short-lived Project Freedom was Trump’s latest deployment of what Iran expert Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft called a “silver bullet” strategy — a belief that one decisive action can make Iran bend.
First, the US and Israeli bombing campaign assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Next up was a fearsome bombing campaign against military targets; then, a blockade of Iranian ships and ports. Then “Project Freedom” came and — within a few hours — went away.
In this aerial handout picture released by the Iranian Press Center, mourners dig graves during the funeral for children killed in a US missile strike on a primary school in Iran’s Hormozgan province in Minab on March 3.
In this aerial handout picture released by the Iranian Press Center, mourners dig graves during the funeral for children killed in a US missile strike on a primary school in Iran’s Hormozgan province in Minab on March 3. Iranian Press Center/AFP/Getty Images
A man holds a flag with a picture of late leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, late Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during a rally in Tehran on April 29.
A man holds a flag with a picture of late leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, late Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during a rally in Tehran on April 29. Majid-Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters
A naval officer aboard USS Tripoli oversees flight operations from the control tower as the amphibious assault ship sails in the Arabian Sea while executing Project Freedom.
A naval officer aboard USS Tripoli oversees flight operations from the control tower as the amphibious assault ship sails in the Arabian Sea while executing Project Freedom. US Navy
But none of these sudden moves succeeded in dislodging Iran’s regime after a new layer of extremists slotted into the spots of their martyred superiors. There is no sign of a splintering of the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that might presage regime collapse. In a war that Iran’s brutal rulers see as existential for their radical Islamic revolution, survival equals a kind of victory.
Anyone hoping for clarity of thought from the commander in chief or evidence of a coherent endgame will have been disappointed by his remarks at the White House on Wednesday to a group of military mothers.
Trump was vague and blasé, playing down the scale of a complex military campaign involving thousands of US personnel, a massive military footprint and billions of dollars.
“We’re in — I call it a skirmish because that’s what it is, it’s a skirmish. And we’re doing unbelievably well, as we did in Venezuela, where it was rapid, over in one day,” Trump said. “And we’re doing pretty much equally as well, I would say — larger, but we’re doing very well in Iran. It’s going very smoothly, and we’ll see what happens. They want to make a deal, they want to negotiate.”