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4. Strategic Isolation: The “Land Bridge” Limitation
Tehran may look to its allies, Russia and China, for support. However, the infrastructure for land-based trade through Central Asia is currently insufficient to replace the sheer volume of maritime shipping. While the “International North-South Transport Corridor” (INSTC) is a priority, it cannot yet handle the millions of tons of cargo that pass through the Persian Gulf.
The Verdict
While Iran has proven resilient under decades of sanctions, a direct naval blockade represents a different category of economic warfare. The potential losses extend beyond mere currency; it threatens the fundamental stability of the state’s logistical and social systems. For Tehran, the cost of this standoff may soon become too high to ignore.